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So
without scientific prognostication, how are we to predict ?
Years ago, 60 Minutes ran a story in June about how fiberglass radial tires, which were then new, were unraveling on the highway. Needless to say, it had a big effect and nearly made the Cape a ghost town until late July when the warm summer drove vacationers down despite their fears. Then there was the summer of 1986 when we had 17 rainy weekends in a row which cut the traffic down to the bone. But the succeeding years came back strong. I can't prove it with stats but I truly believe that there are two factors which rule: First: Any ten year average would be the same without the peaks and without the valleys. Think of it as one balances the other. To look solely at one or the other produces an artificial conclusion. Witness the constant comparison to prior year statistics. In the early 90’s everything was down. A comparison to "down" figures produces artificially optimistic deductions. The reverse was true in the early 90’s - using late 80’s benchmarks was bound to produce depressing conclusions. |
Second: There are plenty of businesses that run counter to the cycle either because they are so well managed and long established that they are either bulletproof or they supply a product or service that thrives in adversity. Either way, if they are in the average they throw it off. Overriding all of the above is that well run businesses do well and poorly run businesses don’t. Even when the weather is off and maybe even when they aren’t supposed to by all known methods of prediction. Real life goes on despite the statistics.
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